This housing market this year has been better than many predicted, with lower-than-expected falls in asking prices, and good levels of demand from home-buyers for the right-priced homes. However, rising mortgage and interest rates have stretched the affordability of many people planning to move.
Our forecast a year ago was that average new seller asking prices would drop by 2% in 2023, and prices are currently 1.1% lower year-on-year. The average asking price of a home in Great Britain is now just above £355,000.
Will asking prices fall in 2024?
The housing market is continuing to return to more normal levels of activity following the frenetic post-pandemic period. Next year, we predict that average new seller asking prices will be 1% lower nationally by the end of 2024, as competition increases among sellers to find a buyer.
Our property expert Tim Bannister says: “It’s likely to be another muted year for the market, however the better than anticipated activity this year has shown that many buyers are still getting on with satisfying their housing needs. We predict a modest average 1% fall in new seller asking prices in 2024. The underlying level of good demand at the right price makes it unlikely that we will see a more significant drop in prices next year.”
Our forecast is based on its whole of market data and house price predictive model using millions of supply, demand and pricing data, along with insights from estate agents and a panel of Rightmove experts.
The housing market is made up of thousands of local markets, each with their own unique dynamic of supply and demand. The predicted fall in new seller asking prices will be felt more keenly in some areas of Great Britain than others. In areas with fewer homes for sale, we may see new seller asking prices remain flat, or even very slightly increase compared to this year.
“In areas where sellers are struggling to attract affordability-stretched buyers, or needing to sell quickly due to a change of circumstance, new job opportunity, or strong desire for a lifestyle change, we are likely to see even more competitive pricing,” says Tim.
